Hubungan Antara Variabilitas Iklim Dengan Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue Di Sulawesi Utara Tahun 2020-2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31004/koloni.v5i4.1502Keywords:
Climate variability, Dengue, Time Series AnalysisAbstract
Climate variability influences the growth, activity, and transmission capacity of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in spreading the dengue virus through changes in temperature, rainfall, and humidity, which directly affect disease dynamics within communities. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between climate variability and the incidence of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) in North Sulawesi during 2020–2024, in order to understand the epidemiological patterns influenced by tropical climatic factors. This research employed an analytical time series design using the Generalized Linear Model (GLM), ARIMA, and Monte Carlo Simulation, conducted between September and October 2025. The GLM analysis was used to identify linear relationships among variables, ARIMA to model trends and seasonal patterns of DHF cases, and Monte Carlo simulation to estimate uncertainty in the results. The findings revealed a significant relationship between climatic factors and DHF incidence, with rainfall identified as the most dominant variable compared to temperature and humidity. High rainfall generates water collections that serve as breeding sites for mosquitoes, while temperature and humidity enhance vector survival and biting activity. These findings highlight that changes in climate patterns, particularly increased rainfall, can serve as an early indicator in dengue surveillance and prevention systems. Thus, climate variability has been proven to influence the incidence of DHF in North Sulawesi during the 2020–2024 period
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